CLIMATE CHANGE BLOW

By Shawn Cumberbatch shawncumberbatch@nationnews.com

Landmark new research estimates that Barbados is taking a major financial beating from climate change. Based on data from the global disasters database EM-DAT, ODI Global, an independent, global affairs think tank based in the United Kingdom, has deduced that loss and damage directly tied to floods and storms cost Barbados about US$752.4 million between 2000 and 2022 alone.

Barbados’ bill for storm and flood damage caused by climate change is expected to reach at least another US$1 billion by 2050, ODI experts said.

Forecast issue

They explained that “the disasters database EM-DAT does not cover all disasters, and with less data points for Barbados than other Caribbean countries, it’s harder to forecast future losses”.

The think tank has published new findings on the economic loss and damage caused by extreme weather events linked to the climate crisis, especially for small island developing states (SIDS).

The information is shared in the new policy brief titled The Price Of A Changing Climate: Extreme Weather And Economic Loss And Damage In SIDS.

It is the first time that ODI has assessed how much direct damage is caused and how much gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been held back and income lost “based on 20 years of data from the EM-DAT global disasters database looking across the world at 35 small island developing nations, including Barbados”.

They calculated that loss and damage directly tied to climate change cost Barbados about US$34.2 million a year between 2000 and 2022, or 0.7 per cent of GDP. Of this total since 2000, US$288 million in losses from these extreme weather events in Barbados can be attributed to climate change, the researchers said.

Dr Emily Wilkinson, principal research fellow at ODI and director of its Resilient and Sustainable Islands Initiative, said the findings illustrated how important the Fund for Responding To Loss And Damage was for countries like Barbados.

“Wealthier countries have benefited hugely historically from burning fossil fuels and so should be stepping up their support to island nations like Barbados, which are already suffering devastating losses due to increasingly severe weather,” she said.

“Given the trajectory we face, Barbados and Caribbean islands alone will need billions, not millions, of dollars annually to respond, and a higher proportion of this needs to be in grants rather than loans.

“The loss and damage fund would be materially different from other climate finance, acting much faster and potentially using innovative financial instruments, for example, paying out when a certain wind speed is reached. This is why having enough of such finance for islands like Barbados remains crucial,” Wilkinson said.

ODI officials pointed out that “despite valiant efforts by small island nation negotiators at COP27 to win the loss and damage fund, there was a lack of funding pledges at COP29”.

They added that the loss and damage fund was still far short and of the US$720 million pledged so far, the latest reports suggest just US$70 million had arrived in the funds bank account.

ODI said that “even though Barbados had fared relatively well in recent years, avoiding some of the worst storms and impacts affecting the Eastern Caribbean, the money available from the new fund would be inadequate for the island’s needs”.

Fishing fleet damage

“ Hurricane Beryl is not included in the above estimate and the impacts of that 2024 event have reportedly caused millions of dollars in damage to the Barbados fishing fleet,” it said.

The researchers said that for Barbados “total economic impacts from hurricanes and floods over the . . . 22 years were less severe than for other Caribbean countries”.

However, they added that “the number of severe hurricanes to cause damage on the island had doubled over . . . 2010 to 2024 with five major storms, Tomas, Irma, Elsa, Bret and Beryl compared to the preceding . . . period between 1980 and 2009”.

For the Caribbean, ODI estimated that “by 2050, the Caribbean will experience a further US$68.6 billion in economic losses that can be directly attributed to climate change under a two degrees Celsius warming scenario – that’s up from US$51.4 billion from 2000 to 2022.

ODI said its estimates would be higher “if an economic value for loss of life was included”.