Tariffs and immigration policies ‘a threat’

by SHAWN CUMBERBATCH

shawncumberbatch@nationnews.com

HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY caused by United States (US) tariff and immigration policy changes, and other geopolitical factors, “could significantly disrupt livelihoods and economic stability” in Barbados and other Caribbean countries.

The Caribbean Natural Resources Institute (CANARI), an independent technical institute based in Trinidad and Tobago, issued that warning recently in the new policy brief, Navigating The New Tariff And Immigration Regimes In The Caribbean.

CANARI said the convergence of these fast-evolving external pressures “highlights the urgent need for the region to adapt and respond strategically”.

The brief is based on preliminary research under CANARI’s Strategic Research and Policy Initiative. Its key recommendations for the governments of Barbados and the rest of the Caribbean were: Prepare urgently for the economic repercussions from recent upheavals in the global trade regime and rapidly tightening immigration controls that are reducing employment options for Caribbean citizens.

In response to new tariffs from the United States, Caribbean countries must intensify efforts to diversify with a view to expanding exports while reducing dependency on extra-regional supplies of food and energy.

Enhance incentives and resources for young people to become entrepreneurs as a principal vehicle for generating employment opportunities.

Strengthen regional cooperation by the public and private sectors in food and energy production and distribution.

Develop labour policies suited to the changed geopolitical economic order, as well as create educational programmes to provide citizens with relevant modern skills, including in agro-industries and artificial intelligence.

Nicole Leotaud, executive director of CANARI, said: “This research emphasises just how important it is for the Caribbean to reassess long-standing development strategies amid global uncertainty.”

“Such re-thinking must be based on assessments of the political economy in all its dimensions, at global, regional and national levels, and the most current projected risk profile for the region,” she added.

US policy changes

CANARI flagged nine direct and indirect implications for the Caribbean from recent US policy changes and other geopolitical factors. These were: Increased cost of Caribbean exports to US markets because of tariffs.

Increased cost of imports from the US, especially food, because of tariffs.

Increased cost of imports of food and energy from global markets because of war.

Reduced or slower growing demand for Caribbean vacations because of increases in the cost of living.

Decline of remittances sent by migrants living in the US because of new taxes and other constraints.

Reduced opportunities for Caribbean citizens wishing to migrate, pursue professional careers and further their education because of new immigration policies.

Greatly reduced development assistance from the US with the closure of USAID.

Reduced collaboration on climate change and weather monitoring due to US cutbacks in domestic and international climate science investments.

Greatly increased uncertainty given all the above.

While calling for Caribbean governments to take action, the brief said that “regional organisations and the private sector, civil society also has a crucial role to play, particularly in monitoring the impacts on local communities of the changes in the global economy and helping people adapt”.

“Local organisations are best placed to monitor and respond to the impact of returning migrants, declines in remittances, and changes in the costs of food and energy,” CANARI said.

“Civil society’s role could also include tracking the implementation of government programmes designed to address these issues.

“Partnerships between local civil society organisations, independent regional organisations such as CANARI, and academics could bring research and documentation skills to shape observations and ideas into appropriate input for policy formation.

CANARI’s brief was published as the CARICOM Private (CPSO) welcomed the US tariffs on key CARICOM CPSO said the move relief to regional industries negatively affected by the implemented in April 2025 August 2025.

The organisation had that the reciprocal tariffs CARICOM member states in export revenue annually, exposures concentrated agriculture and food and published last month Private Sector Organisation US decision to remove CARICOM export sectors. brought important industries that had been the reciprocal tariffs 2025 and updated in had previously estimated tariffs would cost states US$653.6 million annually, with the largest concentrated in the base metals, and chemicals sectors. Withdrawal of reciprocal reciprocal tariffs CPSO chief executive director Dr Patrick Antoine coordinated advocacy of Government played a pivotal the withdrawal of the reciprocal Several Heads, including Chairman and Jamaica Andrew Holness engaged counterparts on the urgency the tariff measures affecting chemicals and other critical The CPSO explained the reciprocal tariffs fell agriculture and food and with its study estimating export revenue losses of for agriculture and US$ chemicals, the latter including and other related industrial The organisation said executive order issued on by US President Donald the reciprocal tariffs and previous rates applied under First trade measures.

Among the products the reciprocal tariffs are Ammonium Nitrate, both widely used across global as methanol and selected Trinidad and Tobago, leading industrial and manufacturing exporter, had been the member affected within the chemicals stands to benefit significantly withdrawal of the US tariffs.

The CPSO said that with CARICOM’s principal trade executive officer and technical Antoine noted that the of CARICOM Heads of pivotal role in securing reciprocal tariffs. including CARICOM Jamaica Prime Minister engaged United States urgency of addressing affecting agriculture, critical exports, he said. explained that “the burden of fell most heavily on the and chemicals sectors, estimating potential annual of US$117.7 million US$86.1 million for including fertilisers industrial inputs. said that the recent on November 14, Donald Trump eliminates and reverses the under the America now exempted from are Ammonia, Urea both essential fertilizers global agriculture, as well selected agri-food products.

Tobago, which is CARICOM’s manufacturing member state most chemicals sector and significantly from the tariffs. with the US remaining trade and economic partner, “the removal of the reciprocal tariffs will, therefore, contribute to the strengthening of the US-CARICOM trade relationship”.

“This decision is both timely and consequential. It reinforces the competitiveness of Trinidad and Tobago’s exports in the chemicals sector, which includes fertilisers and related downstream products,” Antoine said.

“It stabilises key agricultural and agro processing supply chains across CARICOM and provides targeted relief where it is most needed. For Jamaica, a major exporter of agricultural products to the United States, this relief comes at a critical moment, as the nation’s agricultural sector requires all possible support to rebuild its production infrastructure in the wake of Hurricane Melissa.”

A shared purpose

He added, “This outcome demonstrates that when the Community acts in a unified and coordinated manner toward a shared purpose, positive outcomes are achieved for the people of CARICOM.

The November 14, 2025, Executive Order while reflecting US domestic priorities, also reinforces the credibility of the CARICOM as a key interlocutor with the United States and highlights the importance of aligning regional positions in pursuit of common purposes.”

Even as the CPSO continues to undertake work aimed at measuring the impact of the remaining tariffs on regional exports, Antoine noted that with the removal of these key tariffs, a substantial portion of CARICOM’s exports to the US will benefit immediately.

Several categories of imports from the US into CARICOM that evidenced cost increases due to the increased cost of non-US raw materials and components are also expected to now reflect cost reductions.

However, while welcoming the removal of the tariffs on a substantial part of the region’s agriculture and chemical exports, the CPSO said it “will continue to work with the CARICOM Heads of member states to assist with the elimination of the remaining tariffs affecting CARICOM’s exports to the US”.

New information from the Barbados Statistical Service (BSS) confirmed that the US, followed by Trinidad and Tobago, were Barbados’ main trading partners.

The state agency’s monthly trade bulletin for October, said that Barbados imported $1.38 billion in merchandise from the US between January and October, followed by $617.9 million from Trinidad and Tobago.

However, in both instances this represented a decline in the value of imports from the two countries. Barbados imported $1.32 billion in goods from the US in the first ten months of last year and bought items worth $762.1 million from the neighbouring twin island republic in that same period.

Visible trade deficit

In terms of the overall trade picture, the BSS said: “For the period January to October 2025, the value of imports to Barbados was $3.81 billion, whilst the value of total exports was $691.2 million representing an accumulated visible trade deficit of $3.12 billion as compared to a similar deficit of $2.76 billion for January to October 2024.

“Imports for January to October 2025 were $279.9 million more than imports for the same period 2024, an increase of 7.9 per cent. Total exports showed a decrease of some $73.1 million or 9.6 per cent over the January to October 2024 figure.”

The BSS also reported on Barbados’ trade with CARICOM.

“For the period January to October 2025, total imports from CARICOM were valued at $742.1 million, whilst total exports were $248.7 million resulting in an accumulated visible trade deficit of $493.4 million as compared with a deficit of $611 million for the same period of 2024,” it stated.

BARBADOS purchased a variety of merchanise from overseas

overseas between January and October. (Internet image)

BARBADOS mainly exported beverages between January and October. (Internet image)

THE UNITED STATES and Trinidad and Tobago remain by far

Barbados’ main sources of imports. (Internet image)

THE VALUE of Barbados’ exports to its main leading CARICOM

markets declined in the first ten months of this year. (Internet image)

NICOLE LEOTAUD, executive director of the Caribbean Natural Resources Institute.

(Internet

image)

DR PATRICK ANTOINE, chief executive officer and technical director of the

CARICOM Private Sector Organisation. (FP)