Conservative Party ‘will have little impact’

by CARLOS ATWELL carlosatwell@nationnews.com

THE NEWLY FORMED, self-styled “alternative proposition party”, the Conservative Barbados Leadership Party, will have little to no impact on the upcoming General Election, say two political scientists.

Devaron Bruce told the DAILY NATION yesterday third parties made an impact in the 2018 election but there was little evidence this will happen again.

“Regarding the splitting of votes, we’ve seen an example in 2018 where you’ve had considerable third parties – alternative parties, whatever you want to call them – and they mustered about five or six per cent of the national vote, which was relatively impressive [and] certainly would have hurt the Democratic Labour Party (DLP).

“This time around, I don’t think you will see any alternative parties putting together that five or six per cent of the national vote. I think you may maybe get half of that in essence,” he said.

Bruce reasoned it was more likely that popular “detractors” of the DLP, such as former members Dr Ronnie Yearwood and Tricia Watson, could do more damage to the Opposition than any conservative party.

Splitting votes

“I would say that if we’re talking about splitting votes, it’s likely that if they head in the direction of forming a party or run as independent candidates, then I think those individuals, quite frankly, would be the ones to look out for, as opposed to the Conservative Party, as those are individuals with national profiles who can draw votes if they do campaign,” he said.

Bruce said Conservative Party president Corey Beckles did not have “real political backing or any real national profile” outside of his work with the Parliamentary Reform Commission. He described the new party as “pandering”.

“I don’t think that his party will be able to draw, in essence, any real votes, despite – from what I understand – the pandering position they’re taking, which would be the Christian conservative approach. I think that the Barbados Labour Party (BLP) and the DLP would be able to wrap up that Christian conservative vote because persons vote for who they think can possibly win. So, the idea of that group voting for Corey Beckles and his party, I don’t think is going to be very likely.”

Bruce said something was brewing as he was seeing members of both the BLP and DLP on the campaign trail as well as veterans such as Lynette Eastmond, who last ran as part of a coalition party – the Alliance Party for Progress.

When contacted, Eastmond confirmed she was campaigning with Patsie Nurse in St Michael West, a riding Nurse contested in 2022 with the Alliance Party.

Recently, Bishop Joseph Atherley, who was leader of the People’s Party for Democracy and Development, said he would not be commenting on his political plans as yet.

Bruce foresaw another overwhelming BLP win. “Regarding predictions, I think it’s likely going to be a clear win for the BLP. As far as the DLP [is concerned], with the candidates that they have so far and the swing that they have to overcome, I don’t expect that they will do very well at all. They may get one or two seats, or possibly zero again, but I don’t think they will be a force to be reckoned with in the next General Election at all.”

Fellow political scientist Dr George Belle said Barbados was traditionally a two-party state and any other party had a tough road ahead.

Stabilising

“The DLP has been going through a bit of a crisis but it seems to be stabilising. Once they stabilise, then the two-party system that we have is a quite stable system. It’s extremely difficult for any third party to break through because it’s extremely difficult for them to create a base,” he said.

“They have no natural social base to support the party so they are normally an election experiment which fades after the election because they have no social life to continue. Therefore, I would think that the prospects for [the Conservative Barbados Leadership Party] would be dim,” he said.

The retired University of the West Indies lecturer said there were two ways any third party had a chance to make an impact. One was playing the long game and the other was the collapse of an established party and thus replacing it.

Belle also criticised Conservative Party members for saying they were an alternative proposition party rather than a third party.

“The language of political science is that in a two-party system, any other party that is not expected to win of those two parties is a third party. That is the definition. It can be ten of them, but they’re all third parties by definition, so it doesn’t matter what language they come up with. That doesn’t mean anything to us as scientists,” he said.